Author: Anam Patel, ILS Law College
Bangladesh’s current political instability has deep roots in its history as East Pakistan, where it faced severe economic, political, and linguistic discrimination from West Pakistan. Despite Bengali being the majority language, West Pakistan imposed Urdu and overlooked East Pakistan’s substantial economic contributions. The situation worsened with inadequate relief efforts during Cyclone Bhola in 1970, exacerbating the crisis. In the 1970 elections, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s Awami League won a majority in East Pakistan, but West Pakistan’s leader, Yahya Khan, rejected the results. This rejection led to escalating tensions and ultimately to the creation of Bangladesh in 1971, with significant support from India under PM Indira Gandhi.
Currently, 30% of government jobs are reserved for the descendants of freedom fighters, alongside other reservations for women (10%) backward districts (10%), ethnic minorities (5%), and people with disabilities (1%). This total of 56% reservations includes the significant 30% quota for freedom fighters’ descendants.
This quota system has recently sparked intense political violence. Students and activists argue that it is outdated and unfair, disproportionately benefiting a specific group and limiting civil service opportunities for the youth population PM Sheikh Hasina has faced accusations of using the quota system to favor supporters, and over 60,000 objections to the freedom fighters’ list remain unresolved.
The controversy over the quota system came to a head in February 2018 when the General Students’ Rights Conservation Council successfully pressured for its abolition. However, in 2021, seven students from freedom fighters’ families petitioned the High Court to reinstate the quota. On June 5, 2024, the court ruled in their favor, declaring the abolition illegal and reinstating the quota. This decision triggered nationwide protests, with students arguing that the quota is unconstitutional. In july protest were small but persistent The situation escalated when PM Sheikh Hasina compared the protesters to “razakars,” a term for collaborators with Pakistani forces during the 1971 war. Protesters adopted the term, declaring, “We are razakars” and branding the prime minister an autocrat.
Following the AL secretary general’s threat, violence erupted on July 17, with BCL members, police, and government supporters clashing with protesters, causing at least six deaths. The situation worsened with a “complete shutdown” attempt, prompting a nationwide military deployment and “shoot on sight” order to quell the unrest
The escalating violence reveals that the quota issue is just the peak of the ice berg . The frustration is fueled by rising inflation, a poor job market for graduates, and widespread corruption benefiting government officials, making the quota controversy a focal point of deeper grievances in Bangladesh’s ongoing struggle for equity and justice
The situation in Bangladesh reached a critical point when thousands of students marched into Dhaka from the Gazipur border, leading to escalating violence. Earlier, ,the Army had told Hasina that they wouldn’t stop the students during their march . unrest intensified, and the Army reportedly gave Hasina just 45 minutes to leave the country. This lead to Hasina’s resignation.
Later Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took oath as the head of Bangladesh’s interim government ,Yunus was joined by 16 advisers. Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at The Wilson Center, commented that if the interim government remains in power for an extended period, the likelihood of the military playing a more significant role in Bangladesh’s politics increases.
India’s strategic partnership with Bangladesh has been disturbed with departure of Sheikh Hasina, whose leadership was pivotal in strengthening bilateral ties and countering regional terrorism. Hasina’s tenure saw an unprecedented level of cooperation between the two nations, significantly advancing security collaborations and economic exchanges. Under her administration, India-Bangladesh bilateral trade surged to USD 13 billion in FY 2023–24, making Bangladesh as India’s largest trade partner in the subcontinent. The South Asian Free Trade Area agreement, negotiated during her time in office, granted India duty-free access on most tariff lines, further deepening economic integration.
However, with Hasina’s political future now uncertain, India faces a complex challenge. Her administration’s unpopularity and controversial governance have begun to affect India’s regional positioning.
Pallab Bhattacharya, writer for The Daily Star in Bangladesh, stated that . “It can’t be business as usual,”
Bhattacharya told Nikkei Asia. “India has invested significantly in Bangladesh politically and economically since 2009, but the new government could include elements less favorable toward India.” He noted that anti-India sentiment could rise, particularly if the Bangladesh Nationalist Party or the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami, which have historically had less favorable views of India, gain influence. This shift could potentially open doors for greater Chinese involvement in Bangladesh, given Beijing’s close ties with Islamabad. India has made substantial contributions to Bangladesh’s economic and infrastructural have been substantial. However, Bhattacharya warns that key projects, such as rail and road connectivity initiatives, could be at risk.
Prerna Gandhi, an associate fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation in New Delhi, points out that instability in Bangladesh could directly impact India’s northeastern states—West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Tripura. She stated that the India-Bangladesh relations have been flourishing under Hasina’s tenure but the recent tension over over the treatment of the Hindu minority in Bangladesh had strained ties
Yogesh Gupta, a former Indian ambassador and secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs, emphasizes that India will continue to offer its support and cooperation to Bangladesh. He also asserts the necessity of closely monitoring the evolving situation to safeguard India’s security and regional interests.
Uncertain Political Environment
The nature of Bangladesh’s new government, will significantly influence India’s strategic interests. A regime less favorable to India could embolden anti-India militant groups, provoke an already tense security situation along the borders. If Extremism intensifies, the Hindu minority in Bangladesh might face increased risks, complicating India’s efforts to manage citizenship promises for Hindu refugees.
Regional Geopolitics
The instability in Bangladesh could present an opportunity for China to increase its influence in the region. Beijing may offer lucrative deals to the new regime, similar to its tactics in Sri Lanka and the Maldives. India will need to forge strategic partnerships to ensure that extremist elements do not gain ground and that Bangladesh’s economic stability is upheld, as currently all the neighbors of have some turmoil going on be it tensions with Pakistan, instability in Myanmar, strained relations with Nepal, Taliban’s control in Afghanistan, and issues in the Maldives
Impact on Indian Investments
Political instability in Bangladesh threatens Indian businesses and investments, especially in the textile sector where Indian firms own about 25% of the units. Disruptions in trade and payment delays could harm profitability, potentially leading some units to relocate back to India. Additionally, ongoing discussions about a free trade agreement, which could enhance trade between India and Bangladesh, are now jeopardized by the unrest. For days, all commercial activities at the India-Bangladesh border were halted, causing estimated losses of nearly USD $18 million per day. This uncertainty impacts both current investments and future trade prospects.
Infrastructure and Connectivity Concerns
Infrastructure and connectivity projects have been central to strengthening India-Bangladesh relations. India has invested USD 8 billion since 2016 in critical infrastructure projects, including the Akhaura-Agartala rail link and the Khulna-Mongla Port rail line. However, the current unrest threatens these vital connections, potentially disrupting trade routes and access to India’s Northeast region, and jeopardizing previously established agreements
Influx of refugees
Due to the increase instability and riots on going in Bangladesh could lead to influx of refugees in India. India’s Border Security Force (BSF) said that it was dealing with attempts by hundreds of Bangladeshis, to cross into India. Since a very large part of land border remain unfenced, policing the border to prevent a sudden influx of refugees has become a strain on BSF resources.
Conclusion
Bangladesh’s shift to a new regime presents challenges for India, as Sheikh Hasina’s departure introduces uncertainty in bilateral relations. This transition could affect regional security, economic stability, and trade. India must carefully navigate this change, balancing support for democratic processes while addressing potential rises in anti-India sentiment and increased Chinese influence. Strategic diplomacy and vigilant monitoring are crucial to protecting India’s interests and maintaining a constructive relationship with Bangladesh.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
How has the quota system contributed to political violence?
The quota system in Bangladesh reserves 30% of government jobs for the descendants of freedom fighters, This system has sparked controversy & political violence, as many view it as outdated and unfair. Protests and clashes have occurred, after court rulings reinstated the quota after it was previously abolished.
What impact did the political turmoil have on Sheikh Hasina?
The political turmoil led to widespread protests and violence, which ultimately pressured Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to resign. The Army reportedly gave her a short time to leave the country amid escalating unrest.
What are the potential risks for Indian investments in Bangladesh ?
Indian investments in Bangladesh, , face risks due to political instability. Disruptions in trade, payment delays, and potential relocations of Indian businesses could impact the profitability and stability of these ventures. Ongoing discussions for a free trade agreement may also be jeopardized.
